Ideally, to achieve high crop yields growers want a temperature range of 17 to 23 centigrade, together with stable climate and encouraging soil conditions. According to a recent Cafedirect report, coffee farmers in developed countries are suffering damage to their crops. Rising temperatures are forcing coffee growers to shift to higher altitudes, and these higher temperatures encourage more disease caused by pests. Given that coffee beans are best grown with small temperature variations, clearly climate change will have a growing impact on coffee growers.
The two most important varieties for followers of coffee commodity trading are Arabica and Robusta, with both strongly featured as futures on global commodity exchanges. Brazil, a major Arabica coffee producer, is also the largest global producer with around 34 million (29% global output) 60-kg bags of coffee in 2007/8. Meanwhile, the US is both the largest global consumer and importer of coffee. Vietnam comes in second place with a 15% world share at 17.50 m bags (Robusta), while in third place is Columbia with an 11% share producing Arabica, and Indonesia comes in fourth with production of 7.0 m bags in 2007/8.
Making up about 70% of green coffee bean production, Arabica thrives at altitudes of over 4,000 ft in warm, humid climates, which along with the right soil conditions gives the bean its characteristic aromatic flavour. Most Arabica grows in the high altitudes of countries like Columbia, Brazil, Peru, Ecuador and Venezuela. The Santos grade of Arabica in Brazil is considered one of the best, with beans picked within the first 4 years of the coffee tree’s life. While Robusta beans, which are a lower grade and grown mainly in South East Asia, are picked after 2-3 years, usually with Arabica there is a longer lead time of 4-5 years.
A drought can lead to coffee futures prices rising because a crop yield collapse hits supply. Lower crop yields due to higher than normal rainfall may also lead to higher prices. The crop for both current and the following year can be affected by freezing, which can be a problem particularly in Latin America for Arabica varieties in the higher altitudes. Over recent years serious freezing has occurred once in every six years in winter (June to August) months in the southern hemisphere, according to data. The coffee commodity trading observer needs to weigh up all these factors before they enter trades.
The first stages in coffee bean growth is the appearance of white blossom on coffee trees, followed by growth of green cherries from two weeks to 6-9 months, which eventually become reddish and then black cherries. There are two coffee beans in each cherry. The “dry” method accounts for most coffee production where cherries are stripped off the tree before the green beans are dried and graded, then shipped for roasting. Broadly speaking one pound of coffee comes from around 2,000 cherries (4,000 beans).
With your coffee commodity trading system set up and having approached a broker for an electronic trading platform, you are ready for profitable coffee trades. On ICE Futures US there is a Coffee “C” futures contract which is the Arabica benchmark, while the exchange also offers a Robusta futures contract. Alternatively, with NYSE Euronext route there are two Robusta coffee futures contracts available to trade on the London LIFFE market, along with other soft commodities like white sugar, raw sugar, cocoa and rapeseed. If you only want exposure to soft commodities without trading futures you could invest in an agricultural ETF, tracking a soft commodity index. With these derivative and investment funds you have a good choice for gaining exposure to dynamic coffee commodity trading markets.
Focusing on soft commodities, the author, Marianna Gomes, writes articles to the Commodity Trading Today website, a helpful informational resource. Find out more about how you could benefit from coffee commodity trading tips here.
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